European Commissioner for Neighbourhood and Enlargement, Oliver Varhelyi, speaks at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France, 19 October 2022. EPA-EFE/JULIEN WARNAND Is There Really New Momentum Behind EU Enlargement?Ian BancroftBelgradeBIRNMarch 13, 202308:22 Ian BancroftBelgradeBIRNMarch 13, 202308:22Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may have inadvertently put wind in the sails of EU enlargement, but the people of the Western Balkans need to see it to believe it.
During a recent visit to Brussels by a diverse group of civil society organisations from Kosovo and Serbia, a consistent and surprising message was heard from various interlocutors – that there is a renewed and buoyant sense of momentum behind the European Union enlargement process.
It was a sense of momentum reiterated by those dealing directly with the Western Balkans, not simply those inspired by the prospect of Ukraine one day taking up its rightful place in the Union; by those who have lived through the long doldrums of enlargement fatigue and were nostalgic for the big bangs of the past.
While there may well be ‘buzz’ in the Brussels bubble, however, it is not a feeling that resonates in the Western Balkans, particularly in Kosovo and Serbia, whose citizens are almost united in their belief that the EU door has been firmly closed.
Though visa liberalisation is on the horizon for Kosovo, it is considered too late by many. Patience may look like it has finally paid off, but at the expense of trust and belief in the process and conditionality. There has not been the same fanfare that greeted visa free travel for the citizens of Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Serbia over a decade ago.
The granting of candidacy to Bosnia-Herzegovina was similarly scoffed at as coming at least a decade too late, while Kosovo’s own application for membership in December 2022 faces the obstacle of five EU non-recognisers – Spain, Romania, Slovakia, Greece, and Cyprus.
The paths may appear objectively tangible, but lived experience suggests otherwise. One need only ask someone from North Macedonia to appreciate such frustrations.
While such sentiments may eventually evaporate, they continue to heavily influence how the EU is currently viewed. Regular perception surveys show growing ambivalence towards the EU path, particularly in Serbia. Though some may point to the ambivalence that existed in Croatia ahead of its own accession, such Euroscepticism so early in the process bodes ill.
Less EU leverage
Albania’s Prime Minister Edi Rama (L) shakes hands with EU Neighborhood and Enlargement Commissioner Oliver Varhelyi (R) ahead of the EU-Western Balkans summit in Tirana, Albania, 06 December 2022. Leaders of the European Union (EU) and their counterparts from Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia converged in Tirana for a one day summit presenting the EU’s willingness for tangible steps for the Western Balkans countries to join the bloc rather than just promises. EPA-EFE/MALTON DIBRA
The weakening of the EU perspective matters for domestic reform. The more distant the prospect of membership, the less the EU leverage. Incumbent politicians are in general reluctant to pursue costly accession-related reforms, especially in the sphere of rule of law, when the benefits of membership are so far off. Furthermore, without the EU anchor it is difficult for reform coalitions to create the requisite pressure from below which can drive change.
This is not to absolve politicians of blame. The stalling of reform processes across the region, though haphazard and unequal, derives in part from the benefits accruing to incumbents from their control or outright capture of state institutions. Bilateral disputes have been left to linger even as economies struggle and people flee the region.
Yet it is clear that the substantial investments of the EU have not produced the results expected in terms of visibility and standing, allowing misperceptions to linger about the relative support of other countries such as Russia and China. The EU remains the Western Balkan’s most important partner, no matter what metric is used.
With elections for the European Parliament scheduled to be held in 2024, there is a prime opportunity to push enlargement back up the issue agenda. Though often deemed a contentious and unpopular issue, supporters of expansion need to make positive arguments for why it benefits the Union as a whole.
Coalitions of the willing
Leaders of EU and Western Balkans countries watch a traditional dance performance during the EU-Western Balkans summit in Tirana, Albania, 06 December 2022. Leaders of the European Union (EU) and their counterparts from Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia converged in Tirana for a one day summit presenting the EU’s willingness for tangible steps for the Western Balkans countries to join the bloc rather than just promises. EPA-EFE/MALTON DIBRA
Candidacy for Ukraine has created the possibility to advance the case for necessary reforms to the EU to ensure expanded membership can be accommodated institutionally. If a broader Union is not going to collapse into contradiction, then internal reforms to the EU’s cumbersome decision-making structures will be required.
The momentum for such changes can be generated by those who advocate for Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova and the entire Western Balkans. Enlargement will always be vulnerable to the whims of specific member states, but this is exactly why vocal coalitions of the willing are more important than ever.
For this to happen, optimistic sentiments expressed in the corridors of Brussels need to be amplified through public support – from member states, EU institutions and others. There is a pressing need to pursue a more strategic approach to communications to reassert not only the European perspective, but the EU’s importance to the entire Western Balkans. Governments in the region need to be pressured to better acknowledge the importance of the EU as both a donor and trading partner.
A new sense of momentum in the Western Balkans – especially if further catalysed by a deal between Serbia and Kosovo – could fuel a positive feedback loop of reform and enhanced regional co-operation, further emboldening the message of progress. It would allow the EU’s substantial toolbox to be fully exploited, particularly the connectivity agenda with its tangible signs of change.
To re-embolden the European perspective of the Western Balkans, citizens need to see and feel a genuine commitment to enlargement. Such voices of support do exist, but they have been muffled. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine should give them the confidence to speak with renewed vigour.
They will find plenty of allies in Serbia, Kosovo, and beyond ready to amplify and complement these messages for the sake of a common European future. If Europe fails to take advantage now, then such individuals will themselves become part of the region’s silent exodus.
Ian Bancroft is a writer and former diplomat. He is the author of ‘Dragon’s Teeth: tales from north Kosovo’. You can follow and contact the author via Twitter – @bancroftian.
The opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of BIRN.
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